{"id":8995,"date":"2026-01-18T17:35:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T15:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/?p=8995"},"modified":"2026-01-18T17:36:28","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T15:36:28","slug":"barometre-01-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/actualites\/barometre-01-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Barom\u00e8tre | Janvier 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

En d\u00e9cembre 2026, la situation des affaires dans l’industrie genevoise s’est d\u00e9t\u00e9rior\u00e9e davantage que lors des trois mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. Les entr\u00e9es de commandes, les carnets de commandes et la production ont recul\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 novembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour les trois prochains mois, les chefs d’entreprise anticipent un repli continu des entr\u00e9es de commandes et de la production, mais une l\u00e9g\u00e8re am\u00e9lioration \u00e0 plus long terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Situation \u00e0 Gen\u00e8ve en d\u00e9cembre<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

La conjoncture industrielle \u00e0 Gen\u00e8ve et en Suisse refl\u00e8te une r\u00e9silience sous tension en fin 2025, avec un recul des commandes et de la production en d\u00e9cembre, aggrav\u00e9 par l’instabilit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique domin\u00e9e par les droits de douane am\u00e9ricains initiaux \u00e0 39% (abaiss\u00e9s \u00e0 15% fin novembre). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ces donn\u00e9es, issues d’enqu\u00eates trimestrielles anonymes aupr\u00e8s de chefs d’entreprises (comme celles de la CCIG et OCSTAT\/KOF), capturent des perceptions subjectives pr\u00e9coces, expliquant pourquoi d\u00e9cembre reste marqu\u00e9 n\u00e9gativement malgr\u00e9 l’all\u00e8gement tardif des tariffs. \u00c0 plus long terme, une am\u00e9lioration l\u00e9g\u00e8re est anticip\u00e9e, soutenue par la diversification des march\u00e9s suisses et genevois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact G\u00e9opolitique<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Les tensions commerciales US-Suisse, impos\u00e9es d\u00e8s ao\u00fbt 2025 par l’administration Trump, ont frapp\u00e9 durement l’industrie exportatrice genevoise (74% des firmes affect\u00e9es), r\u00e9duisant marges et d\u00e9bouch\u00e9s malgr\u00e9 l’exc\u00e9dent commercial am\u00e9ricain. \u00c0 l’\u00e9chelle suisse, les cha\u00eenes de valeur mondiales restent vuln\u00e9rables, avec un virage protectionniste \u00e9rodant la confiance, bien que la baisse des tariffs am\u00e9liore la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 (r\u00e9duction moyenne de 10% des co\u00fbts).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perspectives 2026<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Pour la Suisse, une croissance mod\u00e9r\u00e9e est pr\u00e9vue (1,2%), avec ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 3,3% et emploi stagnant (+0,2%), tandis que Gen\u00e8ve vise 1,5% de PIB mais avec ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 5,2%. L’horlogerie genevoise absorbe partiellement les chocs via r\u00e9orientation des ventes, aid\u00e9e par un franc fort et des secteurs r\u00e9silients comme la finance. Les vents moins contraires en 2026 d\u00e9pendront d’une adaptation rapide aux incertitudes persistantes (g\u00e9opolitique, d\u00e9dollarisation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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En d\u00e9cembre 2026, la situation des affaires dans l’industrie genevoise s’est d\u00e9t\u00e9rior\u00e9e davantage que lors des trois mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. Les entr\u00e9es de commandes, les carnets de commandes et la production ont recul\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 novembre. Pour les trois prochains mois, les chefs d’entreprise anticipent un repli continu des entr\u00e9es de commandes et de la […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7566,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-barometre"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8995"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8998,"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8995\/revisions\/8998"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7566"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.opi.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}